Investment Institute
Market Updates

July Monthly Investment Strategy - One crazy summer

KEY POINTS
French elections avoided the most extreme political and economic outcomes, but threaten paralysis as the country manages its excess deficit issue.
US developments appear to overturn the political outlook. A Trump win is now our baseline. But Trump’s economic agenda could curtail Fed rate cuts next year.
China’s Third Plenum again promised active domestic demand support, but little sense of anything new.
Emerging market economies will be affected by these broader developments as much as developed.
While EM gross exports are driven by the larger economies, underlying growth is increasingly a function of South-South trade. EM could be well positioned to outperform, but will be vulnerable to Trumponomics.
Meanwhile central bank outlooks are increasingly easing, we expect the BoC (again) and BoE to cut rates over the coming weeks and the ECB (again) and Fed in September.

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Full July 2024 Monthly Investment Strategy
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    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities. Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.

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